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Group Stage Wed, Jun 17 · 11:00 PM BMO Field, TorontoMedium · 62
Win probability
POR 37%Draw 32%NED 31%
Fair odds (model)
POR
2.70
Draw
3.13
NED
3.23
Decimal odds derived from model probabilities. Excludes bookmaker margin.
Expected goals
POR · xG
1.77
NED · xG
1.63
Total expected goals: 3.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%
Both teams to score
Yes76%
No24%
Model factors
- Portugal averages 1.77 xG over last 5 matches
- Netherlands conceding 0.80 goals/90 on the road
- Venue context favors Portugal based on travel & altitude model
- Model uncertainty: ±9.0% on outcome distribution
Experimental public beta model. Projection includes uncertainty and should not be treated as a guarantee.
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0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6.8%
0-1
6.4%
1-1
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
3-2
5.2%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
4.4%
2-3
4.0%
3-3
3.6%
MatchEdge AI is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. This is not betting advice.