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Netherlands vs Japan prediction
View model-based probabilities, expected goals, fair odds and team context for this World Cup 2026 fixture.
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Group F AT&T Stadium, ArlingtonOfficial fixture
Match prediction snapshot
Low · 49NED 42.3%Draw 30.5%JPN 27.2%
Netherlands most likely · Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees.
NED xG
1.36
JPN xG
1.28
Total xG
2.64
Confidence
49
Low
Expected goals duel
NED1.36
JPN1.28Total xG estimate: 2.64
Fair odds (model)
NED
2.36
Draw
3.28
JPN
3.68
Fair odds are derived from model probabilities and exclude bookmaker margin. Informational only — not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
No47%
Model factors
- External Elo rating is the primary team-strength input.
- FIFA ranking is used as a secondary reference.
- Expected goals are estimated from attack, defense and rating strength.
- Predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees.
Experimental public beta model. Projection includes uncertainty and should not be treated as a guarantee.
ATT
88
MID
88
DEF
87
Last 5 results0 pts · 0-0 GF/GA
No verified recent results.
ATT
82
MID
82
DEF
81
Last 5 results0 pts · 0-0 GF/GA
No verified recent results.
Recent form is informational and not a guarantee.
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0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6.8%
0-1
6.4%
1-1
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
3-2
5.2%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
4.4%
2-3
4.0%
3-3
3.6%
MatchEdge AI is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. This is not betting advice.