Methodology
We believe in showing our work. Here's a plain-English breakdown of how every MatchEdge AI probability is generated.
Each nation has an overall strength score combining historical performance, squad quality and competition tier.
Ratings update after every international fixture. Wins against higher-rated opposition move ratings more than wins against weaker opponents.
Attacking and defensive xG distributions are estimated per team, then combined into a match-level scoreline simulation.
More recent matches carry more weight. Form is a decay-weighted average of result quality and opponent strength.
Host advantage, travel distance and altitude are modeled per fixture using historical World Cup base rates.
Every prediction is sampled across thousands of simulations to capture variance. Outputs include a confidence score.
Decimal odds are derived directly from model probabilities. No bookmaker margin is applied — these reflect the model's view.
Low / medium / high tiers based on input sample size and prediction variance. Low confidence means treat the output with extra caution.