MatchEdge AI
Simulation Preview · Public Beta

World Cup 2026 group simulations

Explore a limited public preview of projected group outcomes based on current MatchEdge AI beta probabilities.

Simulation outputs are probabilistic estimates, not guarantees. Results may change as ratings, fixtures and model inputs are updated.

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Latest simulation: May 28, 2026 · 10,000 iterations per group

Group preview

12 groups · 48 teams

Group A
Mexico
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Mexico
5.7077.8%1st
Korea Republic
4.5959.4%2nd
Czechia
4.0348.0%Outside Top 2
South Africa
1.9814.9%Outside Top 2
Group B
Switzerland
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Switzerland
6.1684.7%1st
Canada
5.1872.3%2nd
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3.0628.8%Outside Top 2
Qatar
2.0014.2%Outside Top 2
Group C
Brazil
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Brazil
6.2184.5%1st
Morocco
4.8263.8%2nd
Scotland
3.7941.5%Outside Top 2
Haiti
1.6210.3%Outside Top 2
Group D
Türkiye
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Türkiye
5.0167.2%1st
Paraguay
3.9848.5%2nd
Australia
3.7645.0%Outside Top 2
USA
3.4239.3%Outside Top 2
Group E
Germany
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Germany
5.8280.0%1st
Ecuador
5.6077.2%2nd
Côte d'Ivoire
3.5334.1%Outside Top 2
Curaçao
1.538.7%Outside Top 2
Group F
Netherlands
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Netherlands
5.8480.9%1st
Japan
5.1170.8%2nd
Sweden
3.0829.6%Outside Top 2
Tunisia
2.3018.8%Outside Top 2
Group G
Belgium
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Belgium
5.8579.8%1st
IR Iran
4.5659.8%2nd
Egypt
3.8344.4%Outside Top 2
New Zealand
2.0715.9%Outside Top 2
Group H
Spain
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Spain
6.7691.2%1st
Uruguay
5.1876.3%2nd
Saudi Arabia
2.4317.5%Outside Top 2
Cabo Verde
2.1715.0%Outside Top 2
Group I
France
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
France
6.2083.8%1st
Norway
4.2452.9%2nd
Senegal
4.2252.2%Outside Top 2
Iraq
1.7111.0%Outside Top 2
Group J
Argentina
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Argentina
6.6990.7%1st
Austria
4.0753.2%2nd
Algeria
3.2335.0%Outside Top 2
Jordan
2.3821.2%Outside Top 2
Group K
Portugal
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
Portugal
5.8782.2%1st
Colombia
5.5878.8%2nd
Uzbekistan
2.7223.0%Outside Top 2
Congo DR
2.2116.1%Outside Top 2
Group L
England
TeamAvg PtsTop 2Finish
England
6.1584.6%1st
Croatia
5.3374.3%2nd
Panama
3.2930.7%Outside Top 2
Ghana
1.6910.4%Outside Top 2

Group simulations repeatedly sample match outcomes from current public beta probabilities and apply tournament standings rules. Read methodology.

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