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Netherlands vs Sweden prediction
View model-based probabilities, expected goals, fair odds and team context for this World Cup 2026 fixture.
World Cup 2026 · Group Stage · Group F NRG Stadium, HoustonOfficial fixture
Match prediction snapshot
Low · 57NED 60.1%Draw 26.7%SWE 13.2%
Netherlands most likely · Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees.
NED xG
1.43
SWE xG
1.20
Total xG
2.63
Confidence
57
Medium
Expected goals duel
NED1.43
SWE1.20Total xG estimate: 2.63
Fair odds (model)
NED
1.66
Draw
3.75
SWE
7.58
Fair odds are derived from model probabilities and exclude bookmaker margin. Informational only — not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.544.9%
Under 2.555.1%
Both teams to score
Yes51.6%
No48.4%
Model factors
- External Elo rating is the primary team-strength input.
- FIFA ranking is used as a secondary reference.
- Expected goals are estimated from attack, defense and rating strength.
- Predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees.
Experimental public beta model. Projection includes uncertainty and should not be treated as a guarantee.
ATT
88
MID
88
DEF
87
Last 5 results0 pts · 0-0 GF/GA
No verified recent results.
ATT
79
MID
78
DEF
77
Last 5 results0 pts · 0-0 GF/GA
No verified recent results.
Recent form is informational and not a guarantee.
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0-0
8.0%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6.8%
0-1
6.4%
1-1
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
3-2
5.2%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
4.4%
2-3
4.0%
3-3
3.6%
MatchEdge AI is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. This is not betting advice.